Summary
Australia lost 39,300 jobs in September 2026 – a significant miss against the +20,000 consensus forecast and a sharp reversal of August’s +29,300 gain – This update provides essential insights into the Australia employment September 2026 scenario.
The September miss makes a fifth RBA rate hike on 3 November significantly harder to justify – two consecutive soft employment prints (August’s part-time-only gain; September’s outright -39,300 miss) have shifted the data backdrop against further tightening; the RBA’s next meeting is 3 November 2026 and the hold camp – Standard Chartered, CBA, Westpac – now looks considerably stronger than ANZ’s hike call; the Q3 2026 CPI (releasing 29 October) remains the single most important input before that decision
Annual employment growth remains positive despite the monthly miss – employment grew 1.2% over the year to September 2026 and total hours worked rose 1.3% over the same period; the trend picture continues to show a labour market softening gradually rather than deteriorating sharply; ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick noted the employment-to-population ratio and participation rate both fell, with 8,900 more Australians becoming unemployed during the month
The numbers
Full September 2026 Labour Force data – confirmed from ABS official (abs.gov.au, 15 October 2026):
| Indicator | September 2026 | August 2026 (revised) | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Employment change | -39,300 | +29,300 | +20,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.7% | 4.6% | 4.6% |
| Participation rate | 66.8% | 67.0% | – |
| Employment-to-population ratio | 63.6% | 63.9% | – |
| Underemployment rate | 6.3% | 6.2% | – |
| Underutilisation rate | 11.0% | – | – |
| Total unemployed | 732,000 | 723,100 | – |
| Youth unemployment | 11.1% | 10.8% | – |
| Full-time hours worked | +0.4% | – | – |
| Part-time hours worked | -1.5% | – | – |
| Trend unemployment | 4.6% | 4.6% | – |
| Trend employment change | +15,700 | – | – |
What the ABS said
ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick: “The number of employed people fell by 39,000 during the month, while unemployment increased by 9,000. The employment-to-population ratio fell 0.3 percentage points to 63.6 per cent, and the participation rate fell 0.2 percentage points to 66.8 per cent.”
ABS methodology note: The ABS recommends trend data as the best measure of underlying labour market conditions. There may be a small degree of residual seasonal influence on the September 2026 seasonally adjusted data. The trend unemployment rate held at 4.6% and trend employment rose 15,700 – a more stable picture than the volatile monthly series suggests.
Context – the 2026 Australian employment trend
| Month | Employment change | Unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) |
|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | +38,000 | 4.2% |
| April 2026 | +22,000 | 4.3% |
| May 2026 | +15,000 | 4.3% |
| June 2026 | +76,300 | 4.4% |
| July 2026 | -15,800 | 4.5% |
| August 2026 | +29,300 | 4.6% |
| September 2026 | -39,300 | 4.7% |
The monthly series has been volatile – a strong June (+76,300), a soft July (-15,800), a partial recovery in August (+29,300) and now a sharp reversal in September (-39,300). The trend series – which the ABS recommends – shows a more gradual softening of unemployment from 4.2% in March to 4.6% in September.
What it means for the RBA on 3 November
The September jobs miss significantly weakens the case for a fifth RBA hike on 3 November 2026.
The RBA cash rate currently sits at 4.60% following the unanimous September 29 hike. Governor Bullock’s press conference after that decision was already interpreted as dovish – she declined to signal further tightening, emphasised the lags in monetary policy transmission and confirmed the Board had considered a hold.
Two consecutive soft employment prints now support the hold case:
- August: +39,500 jobs but driven entirely by part-time work; full-time employment fell 6,300; unemployment rose to 4.6%
- September: -39,300 jobs; unemployment rose to 4.7%; participation fell
Against this, the inflationary picture remains elevated – trimmed mean CPI was 3.6% in July and the Q3 CPI (releasing 29 October) will show whether inflation has continued to ease or whether energy prices from the Middle East conflict have pushed it higher.
Bank forecasts for November RBA:
| Bank | November forecast | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | Hold | Unchanged |
| CBA | Hold | Unchanged |
| Westpac | Hold | Unchanged |
| ANZ | Was calling hike | Likely to reconsider after September miss |
The Q3 CPI on 29 October is now the decisive input. A trimmed mean print above 1.0% q/q would keep November live despite the employment data. A print at or below 0.8% q/q would effectively cement a hold.
Global central bank context
| Central bank | Rate | Last decision | Next meeting |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp – 29 September 2026 | 3 November 2026 |
| Federal Reserve | 3.75-4.00% | +25bp – 16 September 2026 | October 27-28, 2026 |
| Bank of England | 3.75% | Hold 6-3 – 17 September 2026 | 5 November 2026 |
| ECB | 2.50% | +25bp – 10 September 2026 | 29 October 2026 |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp – 2 September 2026 | 28 October 2026 |
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
What was Australia’s unemployment rate in September 2026?
4.7% seasonally adjusted – up from 4.6% in August. On a trend basis, unemployment held at 4.6%.
How many jobs did Australia lose in September 2026?
39,300 jobs – well below the market consensus of +20,000 and a sharp reversal of August’s +29,300 gain.
Will the RBA hike rates in November 2026?
A November hike is now significantly less likely following the September jobs miss. Most major banks forecast a hold. The Q3 CPI (29 October) is the decisive remaining input.
When is the next RBA meeting?
Tuesday 3 November 2026 – announcement at 2:30pm AEST.
What is Australia’s cash rate now?
4.60% – effective from 30 September 2026, following the September 29 hike.
This article is based on ABS Labour Force data released 15 October 2026. Exchange rates and RBA probabilities fluctuate. Last updated 16 October 2026.
Sources: abs.gov.au – Labour Force, Australia, September 2026 (official, 15 October 2026) | sharesansar.com – Australia’s Unemployment Rate Climbs to 4.7% as Jobs Fall in September (15 October 2026) | babypips.com – Headline September Jobs Miss Challenges the Case for Another RBA Hike (15 October 2026) | tradingeconomics.com – Australia Employment Unexpectedly Falls (15 October 2026)
