Summary
The RBA meets on Tuesday 3 November 2026 with the cash rate at 4.60%, and all four major banks now forecast a 25 basis point increase to 4.85% following the RBA November 2026 meeting – CBA and NAB changed their calls from a hold to a hike after the September CPI release on 28 October, while ANZ and Westpac reaffirmed theirs; market pricing for a hike was around 80% to 90% after the data, depending on the source and timing (CBA’s analysis put it at about 90%; ASX futures implied about 81% at one point)
Underlying inflation came in above the RBA’s own forecast – the ABS reported the trimmed mean rose 1.0% over the September quarter, against the RBA’s August forecast of 0.8%; headline CPI rose to 4.3% over the year to September, up from 4.0% in August, with fuel prices a key driver of the gap between headline and underlying inflation
A fifth hike would take the cash rate to its highest level since 2008 – the decision is announced at 2:30pm AEDT alongside the Statement on Monetary Policy, which will include new RBA forecasts; banks differ on what comes after November, with Westpac flagging a rising risk of a February increase
The numbers: September 2026 CPI
The ABS released the September 2026 CPI on Wednesday 28 October, together with quarterly figures for the September quarter.
| Measure | Result |
|---|---|
| CPI, annual (12 months to September) | 4.3% (August: 4.0%) |
| CPI, monthly | +0.8% (+0.6% seasonally adjusted) |
| CPI, September quarter | +1.3% |
| Trimmed mean, annual (monthly series) | 3.6% (August revised to 3.5%) |
| Trimmed mean, September quarter | +1.0% (RBA August forecast: 0.8%) |
| Trimmed mean, annual (quarterly basis) | 3.7% (June quarter: 3.6%) |
Housing was the largest contributor to annual inflation, rising 5.2%. Transport rose 8.7%, driven by higher automotive fuel prices. Fuel is excluded from the trimmed mean, which is why headline inflation (4.3%) runs well above the trimmed mean (3.6%).
The quarterly trimmed mean result matched the 1.0% forecast of CBA, NAB and ANZ (Westpac had forecast 0.9%), but it was above what the RBA itself had expected in August. The Board said after its September decision that it will raise rates further if needed, so a result above its own forecast matters.
What the banks expect
| Bank | Forecast for 3 November | Cash rate if delivered |
|---|---|---|
| CBA | Hike 25bp (changed from hold after CPI) | 4.85% |
| NAB | Hike 25bp (changed from hold after CPI) | 4.85% |
| ANZ | Hike 25bp (reaffirmed) | 4.85% |
| Westpac | Hike 25bp (reaffirmed) | 4.85% |
CBA described the expected move as an “insurance hike” against risks from the Middle East conflict, the global AI investment boom and tight domestic capacity, and expects holds in December and February.
ANZ pointed to market services inflation, which posted its strongest annual growth since 2024, and said the data cements the case for a hike.
NAB noted that a hike to 4.85% would put the cash rate 150 basis points above the RBA’s estimate of neutral (about 3.4%) and 50 basis points above the previous peak.
Westpac sees a rising risk of a further hike in February, though it is not its base case.
Forecasts are not decisions. A hold on 3 November would be a surprise to most forecasters and to market pricing, and would likely be read as a dovish signal.
How we got here
| Event | Detail |
|---|---|
| RBA hike, 29 September 2026 | 25bp to 4.60%, the fourth increase of 2026 |
| Governor Bullock’s press conference | Described 4.60% as restrictive but said further increases remain possible |
| ABS September CPI, 28 October | Hot underlying result, above RBA forecast |
| Governor Bullock, 28 October | Said the labour market is a little tighter than the RBA had previously judged, despite the recent rise in unemployment |
| RBA decision, 3 November | 2:30pm AEDT, with new forecasts; the Governor’s media conference follows at 3:30pm |
Scenarios for 3 November
| Outcome | What it would mean |
|---|---|
| Hike to 4.85% (consensus) | Fifth increase of 2026. Variable-rate borrowers would see repayments rise if lenders pass it on. The AUD is typically supported by higher rates |
| Hold at 4.60% (surprise) | Likely read as a dovish signal. The AUD could ease, and markets would turn to the October CPI on 25 November |
The Statement on Monetary Policy released with the decision will matter as much as the rate itself. New forecasts and the Board’s language on further increases will shape expectations for December and February.
What it means for sending money from Australia
Higher Australian interest rates tend to support the Australian dollar, and a hike that is already close to fully priced may have limited additional effect on the day. The guidance after the decision is often what moves the exchange rate.
If you are sending money home, the amount your recipient receives depends on the exchange rate at the moment you confirm. The rate and the exact destination amount are shown before you confirm, so you can check the figure at the time you send.
OrbitRemit fees from Australia (selected corridors):
- AUD to INR: no flat transfer fee
- AUD to PHP (GCash and wallets): no flat transfer fee; bank deposit AUD $4
- AUD to GBP: no flat transfer fee
Transfers may attract additional fees depending on destination, payment method and transfer amount. All applicable fees are shown in the calculator before you confirm.
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
When is the next RBA decision?
Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 2:30pm AEDT, with the Statement on Monetary Policy.
What is the RBA cash rate now?
4.60%, after the 25 basis point increase on 29 September 2026.
Will the RBA raise rates on 3 November?
All four major banks (CBA, NAB, ANZ and Westpac) forecast a 25 basis point increase to 4.85%, and market pricing was around 80% to 90% after the CPI, depending on the source. No decision has been made until the RBA announces it.
What was Australia’s inflation rate in September 2026?
Headline CPI rose 4.3% over the 12 months to September. The trimmed mean, which excludes extreme price movements including fuel, rose 3.6% over the year on the monthly series, and 1.0% over the September quarter.
Why does the trimmed mean matter?
The RBA focuses on underlying inflation. The 1.0% quarterly result was above the RBA’s August forecast of 0.8%, which is the main reason CBA and NAB changed their calls.
What happens after November?
Views differ. CBA expects holds in December and February. Westpac sees a rising risk of a February hike but does not expect it as its base case.
This article is general information, not financial advice, and was written before the RBA’s 3 November decision. Forecasts and market pricing change quickly. This post will be updated with the confirmed result. Check live rates at orbitremit.com before sending. Last updated 2 November 2026.
Sources: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026 and media release (28 October 2026) | The Adviser, All four major banks now tipping November hike as inflation jumps (29 October 2026) | investingLive, RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February (29 October 2026) | Savings.com.au, Australia’s inflation climbs to 4.3% ahead of crucial RBA rates call | CommBank, economists forecast November RBA rate hike (28 October 2026) | Admiral Markets, Australia CPI Rises to 4.3% in September 2026 and RBA Governor Bullock speech coverage | rbawatch.com, ASX futures pricing for the 3 November meeting
