Summary
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% on Wednesday 28 October 2026, a surprise to markets that had priced a hike to 3.00% at close to 90% – the Monetary Policy Committee voted 4-3; Governor Anna Breman, Carl Hansen, Rebecca Williams and Prasanna Gai voted to hold, while Paul Conway, Hayley Gourley and Karen Silk voted for a 25 basis point increase. The decision is crucial as we look ahead to RBNZ October 2026.
The hold was framed as a pause, not an end to tightening – the RBNZ’s record of meeting says further OCR increases are likely but conditional on the outlook; at her press conference Governor Breman said OCR increases are highly likely at coming meetings and that the chance of a December increase is high
The New Zealand dollar fell against every major currency after the announcement – the committee also discussed the NZD decline, noting that if it is sustained it could add to imported inflation; the next decision is the Monetary Policy Statement on Wednesday 9 December 2026, which will be closely watched as we approach RBNZ October 2026.
What the RBNZ decided
| Decision date | Wednesday 28 October 2026 |
| OCR | Held at 2.75% |
| Market expectation | 25bp hike to 3.00% (priced at about 88% on LSEG data; ASB put it near 95%) |
| Vote | 4-3 to hold |
| Voted to hold | Anna Breman (Governor), Carl Hansen, Rebecca Williams, Prasanna Gai |
| Voted to hike 25bp | Paul Conway, Hayley Gourley, Karen Silk |
| Next decision | Monetary Policy Statement, Wednesday 9 December 2026 |
The committee said two recent OCR increases give it time to assess their effects and the wider economic data. Members weighed the trade-offs between raising the OCR now and waiting for the December Monetary Policy Statement, which comes with new forecasts and an updated OCR track. Governor Breman and Prasanna Gai also flagged material risk that the global environment could shift abruptly.
Why it was a surprise
Markets had moved firmly towards a hike in the days before the decision. Westpac had shifted to an October hike call earlier in the week, and money markets were pricing a third increase in a matter of months as close to certain. A three-member minority voting for a hike shows how finely balanced the decision was.
The data backdrop was mixed. New Zealand’s September quarter CPI, released on 22 October, rose 3.7% over the year, below the RBNZ’s own forecast of 3.9%, helped by a fall in petrol prices during the quarter. Core inflation, however, remains near the top of the RBNZ’s 1% to 3% target band.
The four members who voted to hold pointed to weaker-than-expected inflation, subdued wage growth, stable inflation expectations and ongoing weakness in domestic demand.
Governor Breman also addressed the timing, which fell about ten days before New Zealand’s general election on 7 November. She said the decision had nothing to do with the election and that the mandate is focused on bringing inflation under control.
What the RBNZ signalled about December
The hold came with unusually clear guidance that the tightening cycle is not finished.
- Further increases likely: The RBNZ’s summary record says more OCR increases are likely, but conditional on how the outlook develops
- Governor Breman after the meeting: OCR increases are highly likely at coming meetings, and the chances of a December increase are high
- The exchange rate: The committee discussed the fall in the NZD, which if sustained could add to imported inflation
- Market pricing: About a 77% chance of a December increase after Breman’s comments, according to investingLive
The decision is described by the RBNZ as conditional on the economy. A December increase is a strong signal, not a certainty.
Bank forecasts after the decision
| Bank | View |
|---|---|
| ANZ and ASB | Increases in December, February and March, taking the OCR to 3.50% |
| Westpac | December increase to 3.00%, but does not see it as a done deal; peak of 4% in September 2027 |
| BNZ | Increase at the next meeting; peak of 3.75% |
| Kiwibank | Welcomed the pause; expects 3.00% and then 3.25% in 2027 |
The range of peak forecasts, from 3.25% to 4%, shows how uncertain the path is.
Key dates for the RBNZ
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Tuesday 17 November | RBNZ Survey of Expectations |
| Wednesday 9 December | Monetary Policy Statement with new forecasts and an updated OCR track |
Central banks at a glance
| Central bank | Rate | Latest decision |
|---|---|---|
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held, 4-3 vote, 28 October 2026 |
| RBA | 4.60% | Next decision Tuesday 3 November 2026 |
| Federal Reserve | 3.75-4.00% | Held, 10-2 vote, 28 October 2026 |
What it means for sending money from New Zealand
When a central bank signals higher rates ahead, its currency tends to be supported. The RBNZ’s surprise pause worked the other way in the short term: the NZD fell after the announcement. A weaker NZD means that, all else equal, each New Zealand dollar you send converts into slightly less of the destination currency than it did before the decision.
Exchange rates move constantly, and the December guidance may support the NZD again if it is delivered. The rate you see when you confirm a transfer is the rate you get, so it is worth checking the amount your recipient will receive at the time you send.
OrbitRemit fees from New Zealand (selected corridors):
- NZD to INR: NZD $4 flat fee
- NZD to PHP (GCash and wallets): NZD $4 flat fee; bank deposit NZD $6
- NZD to GBP: no flat transfer fee
Transfers may attract additional fees depending on destination, payment method and transfer amount. All applicable fees are shown in the calculator before you confirm.
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
What did the RBNZ decide on 28 October 2026?
It held the Official Cash Rate at 2.75% by a 4-3 vote. Markets had expected an increase to 3.00%.
Who voted for a rate hike?
Paul Conway, Hayley Gourley and Karen Silk voted for a 25 basis point increase. Governor Breman, Carl Hansen, Rebecca Williams and Prasanna Gai voted to hold.
Will the RBNZ raise rates in December?
Governor Breman said the chances of a December increase are high and that OCR increases are highly likely at coming meetings. The RBNZ describes further increases as conditional on the outlook, so it is not guaranteed.
When is the next RBNZ decision?
Wednesday 9 December 2026, with the Monetary Policy Statement.
What does the decision mean for the New Zealand dollar?
The NZD fell against every major currency straight after the announcement. Future direction depends on data and on whether the RBNZ delivers the December increase it has signalled.
This article is general information, not financial advice. Exchange rates and market expectations change quickly. Check live rates at orbitremit.com before sending. Last updated 2 November 2026.
Sources: Reserve Bank of New Zealand, OCR held at 2.75% media release and Summary Record of Meeting (28-29 October 2026) | Babypips, RBNZ Rate Shocker: Breaking Down the Surprise Hold Decision (28 October 2026) | forex.com, Kiwi crushed as RBNZ delivers shock hold (28 October 2026) | Newsquawk and investingLive, RBNZ Governor Breman headlines (28-29 October 2026) | interest.co.nz, bank economist reactions to the October OCR decision (28 October 2026) | MPA, Split RBNZ holds OCR at 2.75%, but economists still tip December hike | GoodReturns, RBNZ says no political interference in OCR decision (28 October 2026) | Stats NZ, September 2026 quarter CPI (22 October 2026)
