Summary
The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026, as discussed in our analysis of the Bank of England July 2026 — in a closer 6-3 vote, with Megan Greene, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann voting to hike to 4.00%; the June vote was 7-2; the dissenter count is growing
A hike in Q4 2026 is now the base case for financial markets, especially with the recent focus on the Bank of England July 2026 — BoE Governor Bailey acknowledged the Bank could afford to hold given it had cut less than peers before the Middle East conflict, but inflation is forecast to peak at 3.2% in Q4 2026
AUD to GBP and NZD to GBP transfers are fee-free with OrbitRemit — if the BoE hikes later this year, GBP may strengthen, meaning fewer pounds per AUD or NZD; act while GBP remains at current levels if sending to the UK
The Bank of England held its Bank Rate at 3.75% on 30 July 2026 — but the decision was tighter than the market expected. Three members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise rates immediately to 4.00%, up from two dissenters in June. With inflation forecast to peak at 3.2% in Q4 2026 and the Middle East conflict keeping energy prices elevated, the question is no longer whether the BoE will hike — but when.
For British migrants in Australia and New Zealand sending money home, and for Australians and New Zealanders with family, mortgages or financial commitments in the UK, GBP direction matters.
What happened
The MPC voted 6-3 to hold the Bank Rate at 3.75% at its 30 July meeting. The three dissenters — Megan Greene, Huw Pill (BoE chief economist) and Catherine Mann — all preferred an immediate 25bp hike to 4.00%.
The vote tightened from 7-2 in June to 6-3 in July — a meaningful shift that signals growing momentum toward a hike at the September or November meeting.
Key context:
- UK June CPI came in at 2.6%, down from 2.8% in May — helped justify the hold
- BoE inflation forecast: peak at 3.2% in Q4 2026 — still well above the 2% target
- BoE Governor Bailey noted the Bank could afford to hold because it had cut rates by less than peers before the US-Iran conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026
- The Federal Reserve also held on 29 July with three dissents — both major central banks holding with growing hawkish pressure
Growing pressure toward a hike
The 6-3 vote tells a clear story: the MPC is moving toward action. MPC member Huw Pill has said publicly he believes rates will need to rise this year. The two new dissenters — Greene and Mann — have both written about the need to address supply-side inflation from energy prices.
Financial markets are now pricing a Q4 2026 hike as the base case. The next MPC decisions are in September and November — with November considered the more likely timing given the Bank will publish new economic projections at that meeting.
One bank analyst from Equifax UK was blunt: “Whatever the MPC decides today, rate cuts are not coming.”
What it means for GBP — and your transfers
The Bank Rate directly influences GBP. When the BoE raises rates, UK assets become more attractive to global investors, increasing demand for GBP and pushing the exchange rate higher.
If the BoE hikes in November 2026:
- GBP strengthens — more pounds per AUD or NZD on the sending side, but Australians and New Zealanders sending AUD or NZD to GBP would receive fewer pounds per dollar
- British migrants in Australia sending AUD to GBP for UK mortgages, rents or family support would receive slightly less per transfer
For British migrants in Australia and New Zealand: AUD to GBP and NZD to GBP are both fee-free with OrbitRemit — no transfer fee on any amount. If GBP strengthens later in 2026, your AUD or NZD buys fewer pounds. Setting a rate alert now lets you act when GBP is at a level you’re comfortable with.
For Australians sending money to the UK: If you have a regular financial commitment in the UK — a mortgage, rental payment, family support — consider whether to lock in current rates before a potential Q4 hike.
UK June CPI: 2.6%
UK headline inflation fell to 2.6% in June, down from 2.8% in May — a softer-than-expected result that gave the MPC room to hold in July. However, the BoE’s own forecasts show inflation re-accelerating to 3.2% in Q4 2026, driven by:
- The 13% rise in the Ofgem energy price cap in July 2026
- Ongoing pass-through from elevated oil and energy costs from the Middle East conflict
- Stubborn services inflation
The June CPI softness is expected to prove temporary.
Key dates ahead
| Date | Event | Impact on GBP |
|---|---|---|
| 11 August | RBA rate decision | AUD/GBP direction |
| September 2026 | BoE MPC meeting | Possible hike — decision point |
| 2 September | RBNZ rate decision | NZD/GBP direction |
| November 2026 | BoE MPC meeting + forecasts | Most likely hike timing |
| 10 September | ECB rate decision | EUR/GBP reference |
Sending money to the UK with OrbitRemit
- AUD to GBP: fee-free — no transfer fee from Australia on any amount
- NZD to GBP: fee-free — no transfer fee from New Zealand on any amount
- Fee-free above AUD/NZD $10,000 on all transfers
- Rate locked at confirmation — no weekend surcharges, no hidden margin
- Set a rate alert to be notified when AUD/GBP or NZD/GBP hits your target
Send money to the UK with OrbitRemit Set up a rate alert
FAQ’s (frequently asked questions)
What did the Bank of England decide on 30 July 2026?
The MPC held the Bank Rate at 3.75% in a 6-3 vote. Three members — Megan Greene, Huw Pill and Catherine Mann — voted to raise rates immediately to 4.00%. The June vote was 7-2.
Will the Bank of England raise interest rates in 2026?
Financial markets price a Q4 2026 hike as the base case. The BoE forecasts inflation peaking at 3.2% in Q4 2026. November is considered the most likely timing given new economic projections are published at that meeting.
How does the Bank of England rate affect AUD/GBP and NZD/GBP?
Higher BoE rates attract global capital into GBP assets, strengthening the pound. A stronger GBP means Australians and New Zealanders sending AUD or NZD to the UK receive fewer pounds per dollar sent.
Are AUD to GBP transfers free with OrbitRemit?
Yes. AUD to GBP and NZD to GBP transfers are fee-free with OrbitRemit — no transfer fee on any amount. Check current rates at orbitremit.com.
This article is based on confirmed Bank of England decisions and analyst commentary published 30-31 July 2026. Exchange rates fluctuate — check current rates at orbitremit.com before transferring. Last updated 1 August 2026.
Sources: MoneyWeek — Bank of England holds interest rates at 3.75% (30 July 2026) | Mortgage Introducer — Bank of England rate decision live blog (30 July 2026) | RTE — Bank of England keeps UK rates on hold but more back hike (30 July 2026) | HomeOwners Alliance — Bank of England interest rate forecast July 2026 (28 July 2026)
