Summary
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% on 11 August 2026 in a unanimous decision — the second consecutive hold following hikes in February, March and May; the board considered raising rates but chose to hold pending further data. This decision reflects the RBA’s strategy as it moves towards RBA August 2026.
Governor Bullock pushed back hard on market expectations of near-term cuts — “near-term cut in rates does not align with board’s thinking” and “interest rates might need to stay high for longer”; this is a hawkish hold, not a pivot
The AUD is broadly supported — with the hiking bias retained and cuts ruled out near-term, Australian interest rates remain relatively high by global standards; for Australians sending money home, the exchange rate outlook is steady
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate at 4.35% on Tuesday 11 August — but it was not the straightforward, dovish hold that some in the market had hoped for. The board considered raising rates. Governor Bullock explicitly ruled out near-term cuts. And the statement language made clear that while the RBA is pausing, it is not done.
This is a central bank in a deliberate, watchful pause — with one eye on the inflation data and the other on the door marked “hike if required.”
What happened
The Monetary Policy Board voted unanimously to hold the cash rate at 4.35% at its 10-11 August meeting. The decision was released at 2:30pm AEST alongside the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP). Governor Bullock held a press conference at 3:30pm AEST.
The hold was universally expected — all four major banks forecast no change, and interbank futures had priced a hike probability in the low single digits after June’s softer-than-expected CPI.
What was not universally expected was the hawkish tone of the statement and press conference that followed.
Bullock’s message: not a pivot
Governor Bullock’s press conference delivered a clear message across eight confirmed points:
- “Board judges level of cash rate appropriate” — the current 4.35% is where it needs to be, for now
- “Board did consider rate rise” — the hike option was actively discussed; this was not a rubber-stamp hold
- “Near-term cut in rates does not align with board’s thinking” — the most direct pushback against market pricing
- “Interest rates might need to stay high for longer” — an explicit warning to borrowers and markets
- “Progress on inflation has been slow for a year now” — the RBA is not satisfied with the pace of disinflation
- “Still risk inflation takes too long to return to target” — upside risk remains live
- “Need to stay on course with inflation” — no complacency
- “High degree of uncertainty” — the RBA is not confident enough in the outlook to signal anything definitive
The cumulative message: the hiking cycle is paused, not finished. Cuts are not coming soon. The board is watching the data and keeping its options open.
The official statement — language softened slightly
The RBA’s official statement retained the hawkish tone but with a subtle shift from previous language. The statement read:
“The Board will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome.”
Compare this to the previous statement’s explicit reference to “including increasing the cash rate further if required” — that specific phrase was not repeated in the August statement. The softening is subtle but noted by analysts as a mild signal that the peak may be closer than previously indicated.
The statement also acknowledged that “the impact of the Middle East conflict on inflation has so far been less than expected” — a slightly more optimistic read on the global inflation shock than prior statements.
What the SMP forecasts show
The quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy updated the RBA’s economic projections:
- Inflation: Headline inflation expected to continue easing; trimmed mean forecast to return to the top of the 2-3% target band by late 2027
- GDP: Growth outlook broadly unchanged — modest recovery expected through 2026-27
- Labour market: Unemployment forecast to rise slightly from current levels as the economy moderates
The updated forecasts are consistent with a patient, data-dependent hold — no immediate case to hike, but no confidence yet that the job is done.
What it means for the AUD and your transfers
The RBA’s hawkish hold is broadly supportive for the AUD — higher rates relative to peers attract foreign capital into AUD-denominated assets. Bullock’s explicit pushback on near-term cuts removes a potential AUD negative that markets had partly priced in.
AUD/USD was at 0.7049 heading into the decision. A hawkish hold with retained language is broadly neutral to mildly supportive for the AUD near-term.
For Australians sending money home:
- AUD to INR, PHP, VND, NPR — all fee-free from Australia; exchange rates broadly stable
- AUD to GBP — fee-free; the Bank of England also held recently with a similarly hawkish tone (6-3 vote on 30 July)
- Use OrbitRemit’s rate alert to act when your target AUD rate is hit
What comes next
The RBA’s next scheduled decisions:
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 2 September | RBNZ rate decision — hike to 2.75% expected |
| 17 September | Bank of England rate decision |
| September | Federal Reserve — hike expected |
| 10 September | ECB rate decision |
| 26 August | Australia July CPI — key input to next RBA meeting |
| November 2026 | Next RBA decision |
The next RBA meeting is in November. The July CPI (due 26 August) and September quarter CPI (late October) are the two data points that will determine whether the RBA hikes again before year end. If inflation re-accelerates — particularly if oil prices spike again from the Middle East conflict — the November meeting becomes live.
Sending money from Australia
- AUD to INR: fee-free
- AUD to PHP GCash: fee-free
- AUD to GBP: fee-free
- AUD to VND, NPR, IDR: fee-free
- Flat AUD $4 on most other corridors
- Fee-free above AUD $10,000
- Rate locked at confirmation
- Set a rate alert to act when AUD hits your target
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
What did the RBA decide on 11 August 2026?
The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in a unanimous decision. The board considered raising rates but chose to hold pending further inflation data.
Did the RBA rule out future rate hikes?
No. Governor Bullock confirmed the board considered a hike at this meeting and said “interest rates might need to stay high for longer.” The hiking cycle is paused, not finished.
When is the next RBA decision?
November 2026. The July CPI (26 August) and September quarter CPI (late October) are the key inputs. If inflation re-accelerates, November becomes a live meeting for a potential hike.
Did the RBA signal rate cuts are coming?
Explicitly no. Bullock said “near-term cut in rates does not align with board’s thinking” and pushed back on market pricing for cuts in the next six months.
How does the RBA decision affect the AUD?
The hawkish hold is broadly supportive for the AUD — retained hike bias and ruled-out near-term cuts keep Australia’s interest rate advantage over peers intact. AUD/USD was at 0.7049 heading into the decision.
This article is based on the RBA’s official statement, Governor Bullock’s press conference and market commentary published 11 August 2026. Exchange rates fluctuate — check current rates at orbitremit.com. Last updated 11 August 2026.
Sources: RBA — Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision (rba.gov.au, 11 August 2026) | Bloomberg — Australia holds key rate to counter elevated inflation pressures (11 August 2026) | InvestingLive — RBA leaves cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August monetary policy meeting (11 August 2026) | FXStreet — RBA’s Bullock: Board judges level of cash rate appropriate (11 August 2026)
