Summary
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85% on Tuesday 3 November 2026, the fifth increase this year and the highest rate since 2008. This decision is particularly significant in the context of RBA November 2026. – the decision was not unanimous: six members of the Monetary Policy Board voted to increase and three voted to leave the rate at 4.60%; the new rate takes effect on 4 November
The RBA lifted its inflation forecasts and did not signal another hike – its Statement on Monetary Policy now has headline inflation peaking at 4.5% in the December quarter, and inflation is not expected to reach the top of the 2-3% target range until late 2027; the Board said it will continue to do what it considers necessary, but did not say further increases were likely
The Australian dollar fell after the announcement even though the rate rose – AUD/USD slipped to a two-week low, below 0.7000, as markets read the split vote and the absence of tightening guidance as less hawkish than the hike itself; Governor Bullock said another increase is possible but that she does not know how high rates will need to go
The decision
| Decision date | Tuesday 3 November 2026, 2:30pm AEDT |
| Cash rate target | Raised 25bp from 4.60% to 4.85% |
| Effective date | 4 November 2026 |
| Vote | 6-3: six members voted to increase, three voted to leave the rate unchanged |
| Increases in 2026 | Five (February, March, May, September and November) |
| Level | Highest since 2008 |
| Next decision | Tuesday 8 December 2026, 2:30pm AEDT |
What the RBA said
The Board said inflation remains elevated and broadly based, and that there is an increasing risk that higher inflation expectations become embedded. It said it will keep doing what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, and that monetary policy is well placed to respond to developments.
The Board also noted that the increases so far have tightened financial conditions, and that the economy is slowing, housing prices have fallen significantly and the unemployment rate has risen. It judged that a further tightening was warranted given the higher inflation outlook and continuing upside risks.
What it left out also mattered. It did not say another increase was likely. Standard Chartered said the market read that omission, together with the 6-3 split, as dovish.
What Governor Bullock said
At her press conference, Governor Bullock said that inflation is too high and that the RBA’s forecasts show it staying higher for longer. She added that:
- The Board is not tightening because of the direct effect of oil prices on inflation. The tightening addresses domestic capacity pressures, which were visible before the rise in oil prices
- This might not be the last increase, but the judgement is less obvious than before, and she does not know how high rates will need to go
- The Board will stay data-dependent, and Bullock said it is “probably good to wait now and assess incoming data”
- A recession is not the Board’s base case
Standard Chartered described her tone as balanced, noting she rejected the idea that the Board was done with hiking and said the RBA is “preserving our options”.
New RBA forecasts
The Statement on Monetary Policy, released with the decision, revised the inflation outlook materially higher.
| Forecast | August 2026 | November 2026 |
|---|---|---|
| Headline inflation, December 2026 | 3.6% | 4.5% |
| Trimmed mean inflation, December 2026 | 3.3% | 3.6% |
| Trimmed mean inflation, December 2027 | 2.6% | 2.9% |
| Unemployment rate, December 2026 | 4.5% | 4.7% |
| GDP growth, year to December 2026 | 1.4% | 1.6% |
The RBA now expects inflation to stay above 3% for the coming year, and says it is not expected to reach the top of the 2-3% target range until late 2027, around three quarters later than previously forecast. Trimmed mean inflation is forecast to reach the 2.5% midpoint in June 2028.
For context, the latest actual figures were 3.9% headline and 3.7% trimmed mean over the year to the September quarter.
The Statement’s cash rate assumption, which is based on market pricing and is not a forecast of RBA decisions, is about 4.9% by mid-2027 before easing slightly in later years.
How markets reacted
Before the decision, money markets had priced about an 80% chance of a hike, and all but one surveyed economist expected 4.85%. The rate rise itself was therefore largely expected.
After the announcement, AUD/USD fell to a two-week low, below 0.7000, as the 6-3 split and the lack of an explicit tightening bias were read as less hawkish. Views differ on what comes next: some commentators say the split vote strengthens the case for a hold in December, while others still expect one more increase.
This is a useful illustration of how exchange rates respond to expectations and guidance, not only to the size of the rate move. Our guide Does an RBA rate hike make the Australian dollar stronger? explains why.
Central banks at a glance
| Central bank | Rate | Latest decision | Next decision |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA | 4.85% | Raised 25bp, 6-3 vote, 3 November 2026 | 8 December 2026 |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held, 4-3 vote, 28 October 2026 | 9 December 2026 |
| Federal Reserve | 3.75-4.00% | Held, 10-2 vote, 28 October 2026 | 9 December 2026 (US time) |
What it means for sending money from Australia
Interest rate decisions are one of many factors that can influence the Australian dollar. As the market reaction shows, the Australian dollar can fall on a day the cash rate rises. When the Australian dollar is lower, each Australian dollar you send converts into less of the destination currency than it did before, all else equal. The reverse applies when it is higher.
The rupee, peso and other destination currencies also move for their own reasons, so the net effect on any one transfer is uncertain.
Some practical points:
- No one can reliably predict exchange rates, including around central bank decisions. OrbitRemit does not give advice on exchange rate timing.
- The rate shown when you confirm a transfer is the rate you get. With OrbitRemit, the exchange rate and the exact destination amount are shown before you confirm.
- Compare the total received, not just the fee. A provider with no flat fee can still apply a wider exchange rate margin. Enter the same amount with two or three providers and compare how much your recipient would receive.
- Lenders set their own variable mortgage rates. If you have a variable-rate loan, check with your lender about when any change will apply.
OrbitRemit charges no flat transfer fee for AUD to INR, none for AUD to PHP wallet delivery, and none for AUD to GBP. AUD to PHP bank deposit is AUD $4. OrbitRemit makes its margin on the exchange rate, which is shown clearly before you confirm. Paying by internet banking avoids any cash advance fee your card issuer may apply to credit card payments.
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
What did the RBA decide on 3 November 2026?
It raised the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.85%, effective 4 November. Six Board members voted to increase and three voted to hold at 4.60%.
Is 4.85% the highest cash rate in years?
Yes. It is the highest level since 2008, when the cash rate was 5.25% in November of that year.
Will the RBA raise rates again?
The Board did not say. Governor Bullock said another increase is possible but that she does not know how high rates will need to go, and that the Board will assess incoming data. Views among economists and analysts differ.
When is the next RBA meeting?
The Board’s next decision is on Tuesday 8 December 2026 at 2:30pm AEDT.
Why did the Australian dollar fall after a rate rise?
The hike was widely expected, and the 6-3 split and the lack of explicit guidance on further increases were read by markets as less hawkish than hoped. Exchange rates respond to expectations and guidance, not only to the decision.
What are the RBA’s new inflation forecasts?
Headline inflation is forecast to peak at 4.5% in the December quarter of 2026. Trimmed mean inflation is forecast at 3.6% in December 2026 and 2.9% in December 2027.
Important information
This article is general information only. It is not financial, investment or tax advice, and it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a forecast of any exchange rate or interest rate. Forecasts, market pricing and commentary quoted in this article come from third parties, are attributed to them, and are not OrbitRemit’s views or predictions. Exchange rates and interest rates change constantly, and past movements do not indicate future ones. OrbitRemit does not provide advice on exchange rate timing. OrbitRemit’s exchange rate includes a margin, and the rate and destination amount are shown before you confirm each transfer. Check live rates at orbitremit.com before sending.
Related guides
- RBA decision preview: 3 November 2026
- Does an RBA rate hike make the Australian dollar stronger?
- RBNZ holds the OCR at 2.75%
- How international money transfers work
- Comparing ways to send money overseas from Australia and New Zealand
Last updated 3 November 2026.
Sources: Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision, media release 2026-30 (3 November 2026) | Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy, November 2026 | ABC News, RBA hikes cash rate to 18-year high of 4.85 per cent, as it happened (3 November 2026) | investingLive, RBA lifts cash rate to 4.85% in split 6-3 vote, sees inflation above 3% until late 2027, and Bullock press conference coverage (3 November 2026) | Market Index, RBA hikes interest rate to 4.85%, but a split vote hints the end may be near (3 November 2026) | FXStreet, Reserve Bank of Australia: Balanced stance after November hike, Standard Chartered, and AUD/USD reaction (3 November 2026) | Reserve Bank of New Zealand, OCR held at 2.75% media release (28 October 2026) | Federal Reserve, FOMC statement (28 October 2026) and 2026 meeting calendar | Babypips, RBA Raises Cash Rate to 4.85% in a 6-3 Split Vote (3 November 2026)
