Updated 4 November 2026. Vote counting was still under way when this was written, and the post will be updated as results are confirmed.
Summary
Democrats won both chambers of Congress in the 3 November 2026 midterms, reflecting trends observed in the US midterm elections 2026 – Associated Press and major US networks projected Democratic majorities in the House and the Senate; in the Senate, Democrats were on 54 seats to 44 on 4 November (including two independents who caucus with them), a net gain of seven, with a handful of races still uncalled; in the House, the Associated Press called the chamber for Democrats after the party passed the 218 seats needed for a majority, with dozens of races still to be called; President Trump said he was willing to accept the results and work with Democrats
The US dollar weakened broadly, though it recovered part of its early losses – the US dollar index fell as low as 101.21, its lowest since 30 September, before recovering to trade near 101.50, down about 0.35% on the day; the euro rose about 0.4% to US$1.133 and the pound about 0.5% to US$1.348
The Australian dollar did not move in a straight line – AUD/USD traded near 0.6965 in Asian hours and about 0.6977 later, having hit a two-week low after Tuesday’s RBA decision; some analysts noted it struggled to capitalise on the weaker US dollar because weakness on Wall Street can favour defensive currencies over the Australian dollar
What happened
| Election day | Tuesday 3 November 2026 (US time) |
| Senate | Democrats on 54 seats to Republicans’ 44 as at 4 November, including two independents who caucus with them, a net gain of seven; a handful of races uncalled |
| House | Called for Democrats by the Associated Press on 4 November after the party passed the 218 seats needed; 62 races were still uncalled at noon Eastern on 4 November, so the final margin will change |
| Next steps | The new Congress convenes in January 2027 |
OrbitRemit does not take a position on political outcomes. This post is limited to what happened and how financial markets reacted.
How markets reacted
| Market | Reaction | Source |
|---|---|---|
| US dollar index | Fell as low as 101.21, its lowest since 30 September, then recovered to near 101.50, down about 0.35% | FXStreet |
| Euro and pound | Euro up about 0.4% to US$1.133; pound up about 0.5% to US$1.348 | Reuters |
| AUD/USD | Near 0.6965 in Asian hours, about 0.6977 later, after a two-week low post-RBA | FXStreet |
| US stock futures | Fell sharply at first, then recovered; CNBC reported the Dow up about 1,500 points in Wednesday trading, its best day since April 2025 | CNBC, Fox Business |
| Asian shares | Technology and AI-related shares led losses on concerns about regulation and gridlock | Reuters, Euronews |
| Gold | Spot gold up about 2.9% to around US$4,043 an ounce | CNBC |
| US Treasury yields | The 10-year yield fell about 4 basis points to near 4.92% earlier in the session | Reuters |
| Oil | Brent was near US$103 a barrel on Wednesday, after hitting a four-week low on Tuesday | Reuters |
On oil, Reuters reported that investors were weighing talks to end the wars in Ukraine and Iran against concerns that recent attacks could further disrupt supply.
How analysts explained the moves
Analysts offered several explanations. These are their views, not OrbitRemit’s.
- A divided Washington can mean more gridlock. Pepperstone’s Chris Weston said Democratic control raises the potential for legislative gridlock, fiscal brinkmanship, debt-ceiling disputes and congressional investigations, while noting the president retains considerable executive authority.
- Analysts had discussed possible effects on the dollar before the results. Views differ, and none of them are OrbitRemit’s forecasts.
- Some of the outcome was already priced in. Weston also said a narrow win may have been largely priced in, while a commanding one could force markets to rethink the remaining policy agenda.
- Technology shares were sensitive to regulation. Reuters reported that the results fuelled concerns that rapid growth in the AI sector could face greater regulatory scrutiny.
- The Federal Reserve’s policy path remains a separate influence on the dollar. Some analysts noted that US economic data and the Fed’s outlook can offset or amplify political effects.
What it means for the Australian dollar
The Australian dollar is influenced by many things at once. This week’s events overlapped:
- The RBA decision on Tuesday. The RBA raised the cash rate to 4.85% in a split 6-3 vote, which markets read as less hawkish than the size of the rise suggested. The Australian dollar hit a two-week low afterwards.
- The US dollar’s fall on Wednesday. A weaker US dollar tends to lift other currencies against it, helping the Australian dollar recover part of its losses.
- Risk sentiment. Some analysts said weakness in global equities can reduce the Australian dollar’s gains even when the US dollar is soft.
FXStreet reported that money markets see little chance of another RBA increase in December. That is a market view, not a forecast from OrbitRemit.
What it means for sending money from Australia or New Zealand
When the US dollar weakens against the Australian dollar, each Australian dollar converts into more US dollars, all else equal. The reverse applies when it strengthens. The New Zealand dollar also trades against the US dollar. But the effect on your transfer depends on both currencies involved, and a rupee, peso or pound moves for its own reasons, so the net effect on any one transfer is uncertain.
Some practical points:
- No one can reliably predict exchange rates, including around elections and central bank decisions. OrbitRemit does not give advice on exchange rate timing.
- The rate shown when you confirm a transfer is the rate you get. With OrbitRemit, the exchange rate and the exact destination amount are shown before you confirm.
- Compare the total received, not just the fee. Enter the same amount with two or three providers and compare how much your recipient would receive.
OrbitRemit makes its margin on the exchange rate. Fees vary by destination and are shown before you confirm.
What to watch next
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Thursday 5 November, 12:00 GMT (11pm AEDT) | Bank of England decision. A rise to 4.00% was widely expected |
| Friday 6 November, 8:30am ET (12:30am Saturday AEDT) | US October jobs report |
| Tuesday 8 December | Next RBA decision |
| Wednesday 9 December | Next Federal Reserve decision (US time) |
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
Who won the 2026 US midterm elections?
Democrats won majorities in both the House of Representatives and the Senate, according to Associated Press and major US network projections. Counting of some races was still under way.
How did the US dollar react?
It fell broadly, with the US dollar index dropping as low as 101.21 and then recovering part of that loss to trade near 101.50. The euro and the pound both gained against it.
Why did the Australian dollar not rise more?
The Australian dollar was also reacting to Tuesday’s RBA decision and to weakness in global equities. Some analysts said risk-off conditions can limit the Australian dollar’s gains even when the US dollar is weaker.
Will the US dollar keep falling?
No one can reliably predict short-term exchange rate moves, and OrbitRemit does not provide forecasts. Analysts’ views differ, and the dollar is influenced by many factors, including the Federal Reserve’s policy path, economic data and global risk sentiment.
Does this change what I should do with a transfer?
OrbitRemit cannot advise on timing. What you can do is compare the total your recipient would receive from different providers at the time you send.
What happened to stocks and gold?
US stock futures fell at first and then recovered, with the Dow rising sharply in Wednesday trading according to CNBC. Gold rose about 2.9%.
Important information
This article is general information only. It is not financial, investment or tax advice, and it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a forecast of any exchange rate, interest rate or market. Market figures are as reported by the named sources at the time of writing and change constantly, and past movements do not indicate future ones. Analyst and market commentary quoted in this article comes from third parties, is attributed to them and is not OrbitRemit’s view or prediction. OrbitRemit does not take a position on political outcomes. OrbitRemit does not provide advice on exchange rate timing, and its exchange rate includes a margin, with the rate and destination amount shown before you confirm each transfer.
Related guides
- RBA hikes to 4.85%, an 18-year high, in split 6-3 vote
- Does an RBA rate hike make the Australian dollar stronger?
- How international money transfers work
- RBNZ holds the OCR at 2.75%
Last updated 4 November 2026.
Sources: Associated Press race calls and its tracker of uncalled races (4 November 2026) | NBC News Decision Desk and Babypips (4 November 2026) | CNBC, midterm election live updates and stock market news (3 and 4 November 2026) | Reuters, Stocks rally, dollar dips after Democrats’ midterm sweep, and Dollar dips with US midterm results in focus (4 November 2026) | FXStreet, US dollar index and AUD/USD coverage (4 November 2026) | Euronews, Asian stocks and dollar fall as Democrats gain ground in US midterms (4 November 2026) | Fox Business, US stock futures mixed amid key Democratic midterm election wins (4 November 2026) | Vantage Markets, Dollar index analysis (4 November 2026)
