Summary
The ECB held its deposit facility rate at 2.25% on 23 July 2026 — in line with near-unanimous market expectations after its surprise 25bp hike in June, the first tightening since 2023; the ECB is currently the only major central bank actively raising rates. This decision is significant in light of the upcoming ECB rate decision July 2026.
A September hike to 2.50% is now nearly fully priced by markets — the real story of the July meeting is whether Lagarde’s press conference confirms that path or leaves it open; the statement language matters more than the decision itself at a non-projection meeting
AUD to EUR and NZD to EUR transfers are available at a flat AUD/NZD $4 fee with OrbitRemit — fee-free above AUD/NZD $10,000
The European Central Bank held its deposit facility rate at 2.25% at its 23 July Governing Council meeting — the expected pause after June’s surprise 25bp hike, which was the ECB’s first tightening since 2023.
Markets priced more than 99% probability of a hold heading into today’s decision. The real question was never the decision itself — it was what ECB President Christine Lagarde said afterward.
What happened
The ECB raised its deposit rate to 2.25% on 11 June 2026 — its first hike since 2023 — citing inflation pressures tied to higher energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Today’s hold gives policymakers time to assess the effects of that move before deciding whether to tighten further.
ING frames the July decision as a hawkish-leaning hold — sit tight today, but leave the door open for action in September. That September hike is already nearly fully priced into markets.
No fresh economic projections were published at the July meeting, making Lagarde’s press conference tone the primary market signal. Analysts at ING and UniCredit were watching the statement language around inflation risk assessments, and whether Lagarde explicitly endorsed or avoided endorsing market pricing for September.
Why this matters for Australians and New Zealanders sending money to Europe
The ECB’s rate stance affects the EUR/AUD and EUR/NZD exchange rate through relative yield expectations. When the ECB is the only major central bank raising rates — while the Fed holds and the RBA and RBNZ are on hold or cutting — the euro’s yield appeal strengthens relative to the Australian and New Zealand dollars.
EUR/USD has remained near $1.143 despite the ECB’s June hike, suggesting the market has already priced much of the tightening cycle. A hawkish hold today — with clear September guidance — would support EUR strength. A dovish hold — framed as the end of the cycle — would soften the euro and potentially improve the rate for Australians sending AUD to EUR.
What this means in practice:
- If Lagarde’s tone confirms a September hike: EUR/AUD may strengthen slightly — your AUD buys slightly fewer euros per dollar. Act sooner rather than later if you are sending money to Europe.
- If Lagarde’s tone is neutral or dovish: EUR/AUD may weaken slightly — your AUD buys more euros per dollar. Consider waiting or using a rate alert.
The ECB’s inflation context
The ECB’s own June 2026 projections forecast headline inflation averaging 3.0% in 2026, easing to 2.3% in 2027 and 2.0% in 2028 — driven by energy price pressures from the Middle East conflict.
UniCredit expected the July decision to be unanimous, with the ECB maintaining a hawkish tone consistent with a further 25bp hike in September being highly probable.
The next ECB decision is 10 September 2026. If inflation data in August confirms the upward trend, a hike to 2.50% in September is the base case.
Key dates to watch
| Date | Event | Impact on EUR/AUD |
|---|---|---|
| 23 July 2026 | ECB holds at 2.25%; Lagarde press conference 14:30 CET | EUR direction set by press conference tone |
| Late July 2026 | Eurozone July CPI flash estimate | Key input to September ECB decision |
| 30 July 2026 | Bank of England rate decision | GBP corridors; may indirectly affect EUR |
| 31 July 2026 | Federal Reserve rate decision | USD/EUR relationship; affects global sentiment |
| 10 September 2026 | Next ECB rate decision | 25bp hike to 2.50% nearly fully priced |
Sending money from Australia and New Zealand to Europe
OrbitRemit supports transfers to all Eurozone countries and the UK with flat fees and no exchange rate markup.
- AUD to EUR: AUD $4 flat fee — Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal and all Eurozone countries
- NZD to EUR: NZD $4 flat fee
- AUD to GBP (UK): $0 fee-free — always
- NZD to GBP (UK): $0 fee-free — always
- Fee-free above AUD/NZD $10,000 on all transfers
- Rate fixed at confirmation — no surprises
- Set a rate alert in the OrbitRemit app to be notified when EUR/AUD hits your target
FAQ’s (frequently asked questions)
What did the ECB decide on 23 July 2026?
The ECB held its deposit facility rate at 2.25%, pausing after its surprise 25bp hike in June 2026. Markets priced a September hike to 2.50% as the likely next move.
Is the ECB raising or cutting rates in 2026?
Raising. The ECB is currently the only major central bank actively tightening monetary policy in 2026 — it hiked from 2.00% to 2.25% in June and markets price another 25bp hike in September.
How does the ECB rate decision affect AUD to EUR transfers?
A hawkish ECB supports EUR strength — your AUD buys fewer euros. A dovish ECB weakens the euro — your AUD buys more euros. The rate alert feature in the OrbitRemit app lets you set a target EUR/AUD rate and get notified when it is hit.
How much does it cost to send money from Australia and New Zealand to Europe with OrbitRemit?
From Australia: AUD $4 flat fee for transfers to Eurozone countries (EUR). AUD to GBP is always fee-free. All transfers above AUD $10,000 are fee-free. From New Zealand: NZD $4 flat fee for EUR transfers. NZD to GBP is always fee-free. All transfers above NZD $10,000 are fee-free. Check current rates at orbitremit.com.
This article is based on the ECB’s July 23 2026 decision and analyst commentary published before and after the decision. Exchange rates move constantly — always check the current rate at orbitremit.com before transferring. Last updated 23 July 2026.
Sources: ING Think — ECB after press conference June 2026 | piptheory.com — ECB Meeting July 2026 Preview | cryptobriefing.com — ECB Hold Rates Hawkish Hints July 2026 (published 23 July 2026) | europesays.com — ECB Hold Rates July 2026 (published 23 July 2026) | ECB official — Monetary policy decisions June 2026
