Summary
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% on 29 September 2026 — a unanimous 9-0 decision, the fourth rate hike of 2026 and the highest cash rate since November 2011. This RBA rate hike was widely expected with markets pricing 92-94% probability ahead of the announcement; the Board cited the materialisation of upside risks to inflation, driven by domestic capacity pressures and elevated energy prices from the Middle East conflict; the new rate takes effect from 30 September 2026.
Governor Michele Bullock confirmed the Board considered a hold — but not a double hike — at her press conference following the decision, Bullock said a hold was discussed at the meeting but the Board ultimately concluded that further tightening was necessary to bring inflation back to the 2-3% target; she was explicit that a double 50bp hike was never on the table; the RBA’s written statement left the door open to further increases “if needed”
Markets read Bullock’s press conference as dovish despite the hike — AUD/USD slipped below 0.70 following the decision, with Bullock declining to signal another move in November; Standard Chartered noted “a more dovish slant from Governor Bullock” who “emphasised the lags of monetary policy transmission from the rate hikes so far” and “did not talk up the possibility of another rate hike in Q4”; ANZ remains the most hawkish major bank, still forecasting a November hike to 4.85%
The decision
Decision: +25bp — unanimous 9-0 New cash rate: 4.60% Date: Tuesday 29 September 2026 Takes effect: 30 September 2026 Highest since: November 2011 Fourth hike of 2026: ✅
The 2026 RBA rate timeline:
| Meeting | Decision | Cash rate | Vote |
|---|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Hold | 4.35% | — |
| March 2026 | Hold | 4.35% | — |
| April 2026 | Hold | 4.35% | — |
| May 2026 | Hold | 4.35% | — |
| June 2026 | Hold | 4.35% | — |
| July 2026 | Hold | 4.35% | — |
| August 2026 | Hold | 4.35% | — |
| 29 September 2026 | +25bp hike | 4.60% | 9-0 |
| 3 November 2026 | Next meeting | TBD | — |
Why the RBA hiked
The RBA’s written monetary policy statement cited two key drivers:
1. Materialisation of upside inflation risks The Board had previously flagged upside risks to inflation — in September, those risks had materialised. Energy prices driven by the Middle East conflict pushed headline inflation expectations higher. Consumer inflation expectations rose to 4.9% in September.
2. Domestic capacity pressures Bullock confirmed at her press conference: “Inflation is driven by domestic capacity pressures.” Despite the rise in unemployment to 4.6% in August, the Board assessed that the economy retained enough excess demand to sustain inflationary pressure.
The RBA’s official statement: “At its meeting today, the Board decided to increase the cash rate target by 25 basis points to 4.60 per cent. The Board will continue to do what it considers necessary to bring inflation sustainably back to target, including increasing the cash rate target further if needed.”
What Bullock said
On the decision: “The board did not take this decision lightly.”
On the transmission lag: “It does not happen overnight and can take 12-18 months for the full effect of rate rises to be felt.”
On inflation: “Inflation is driven by domestic capacity pressures.”
On interest rate settings: “No zero or very close to zero policy rates.”
On stagflation: Bullock said stagflation is not her view of the current situation.
On a hold: A hold was considered at the meeting — confirmed by ABC News and Yahoo Finance. The Board discussed both options before voting unanimously for a hike.
On a double hike: The Board had not even considered a 50bp hike at this meeting.
The dovish surprise — what markets noticed
The decision itself was almost fully priced — 92-94% probability. The surprise was in the tone of Bullock’s press conference.
Standard Chartered’s assessment (FXStreet, 29 September 2026):
“The statement cited the materialisation of upside risks to inflation but acknowledged slowing economic growth, easing labour-market conditions and falling housing prices while keeping the door open for more hikes ‘if needed.’”
“Conversely, we picked up a more dovish slant from Governor Bullock at the press conference, who indicated that a rate hike and a hold were discussed in the meeting. She did not talk up the possibility of another rate hike in Q4, and emphasised the lags of monetary policy transmission from the rate hikes so far.”
Standard Chartered now calls for an extended RBA hold — November is not their base case. The market agreed — AUD/USD fell to 0.7018 after the announcement.
What a 4.60% cash rate means for mortgages
The 25bp hike adds approximately the following to monthly repayments on principal-and-interest variable-rate mortgages — assuming lenders pass on the full increase:
| Loan size | Additional monthly repayment |
|---|---|
| $400,000 | ~$51/month |
| $600,000 | ~$76/month |
| $800,000 | ~$101/month |
| $1,000,000 | ~$127/month |
Australia’s cash rate at 4.60% is the second-highest among major central banks globally — behind only some emerging market economies.
Global context
| Central bank | Rate | Last decision | Next |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp — 29 September 2026 | 3 November 2026 |
| Federal Reserve | 3.75-4.00% | +25bp — 16 September 2026 | November 2026 |
| Bank of England | 3.75% | Hold 6-3 — 17 September 2026 | 5 November 2026 |
| ECB | 2.50% | +25bp — 10 September 2026 | 29 October 2026 |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp — 2 September 2026 | 28 October 2026 |
Australia’s 4.60% cash rate is now 60bp above the Federal Reserve’s upper bound and 210bp above the ECB — the widest spread since the current tightening cycle began.
What comes next — November 2026
The next RBA Monetary Policy Board meeting is Tuesday 3 November 2026 (meeting runs 2-3 November; announcement at 2:30pm AEST on 3 November).
Bank forecasts for November:
| Bank | November forecast | Peak rate view |
|---|---|---|
| Standard Chartered | Hold | Extended hold after September |
| CBA | Hold | September was peak |
| Westpac | Hold | Data dependent |
| ANZ | Hike to 4.85% | Most hawkish — November hike still forecast |
| NAB | Data dependent | — |
Key data between now and November:
- August CPI — releases today (30 September) — consensus: headline 4.0% YoY
- Q3 CPI (quarterly) — releases late October (exact date: check abs.gov.au) — the single most important input for the November decision
- October employment data — releases mid-October
A hot Q3 CPI print (above 3.8% trimmed mean) would keep November live. A soft print (below 3.5%) would likely cement a hold.
What it means for your transfers
The RBA hike to 4.60% extends Australia’s lead as the highest cash rate among major developed-market central banks. The AUD/USD fell to 0.7018 after the decision — Bullock’s dovish tone offset the hike’s positive AUD impact.
For Australians sending money home to India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nepal and beyond AUD to INR, PHP (mobile wallets only), VND and NPR transfers are fee-free with OrbitRemit.
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
What did the RBA decide on 29 September 2026?
The RBA raised the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.60% — a unanimous 9-0 decision, the fourth hike of 2026 and the highest rate since November 2011.
Why did the RBA hike in September 2026?
The Board cited the materialisation of upside risks to inflation — domestic capacity pressures and energy prices from the Middle East conflict. Inflation remains above the 2-3% target.
Did the RBA consider a hold?
Yes — Governor Bullock confirmed a hold was discussed at the meeting, before the Board voted unanimously for a 25bp hike.
Will the RBA hike again in November 2026?
The next RBA meeting is 3 November 2026. Standard Chartered, CBA and Westpac now forecast a hold; ANZ still forecasts a further hike to 4.85%. The Q3 CPI data (late October) is the key input.
What is Australia’s cash rate now?
4.60% — effective from 30 September 2026.
How much does the hike add to my mortgage?
Approximately AUD $76/month on a $600,000 variable-rate loan — assuming lenders pass the full increase on.
This article is based on RBA official communications and confirmed reporting from 29 September 2026. Exchange rates fluctuate — always check current rates at orbitremit.com before sending. Last updated 30 September 2026.
Sources: rba.gov.au — Statement by the Monetary Policy Board: Monetary Policy Decision (official, 29 September 2026) | abc.net.au — RBA hikes cash rate to 4.6 per cent in fourth rate rise of 2026 (29 September 2026) | domain.com.au — RBA lifts interest rates to 4.6 per cent (29 September 2026) | fxstreet.com — RBA seen on extended hold — Standard Chartered (29 September 2026) | fxstreet.com — RBA Governor Bullock speaks on policy outlook (29 September 2026) | admiralmarkets.com — RBA Monetary Policy Statement: Cash Rate Rises to 4.60% (29 September 2026) | au.finance.yahoo.com — RBA interest rate decision live (29 September 2026)
