Summary
The RBA meets on 10-11 August 2026 and is widely expected to hold the cash rate at 4.35% — all four major banks (CBA, NAB, ANZ and Westpac) now forecast a hold after June’s CPI came in below expectations at 3.8% headline and 3.6% trimmed mean
The decision is announced Tuesday 11 August at 2:30pm AEST — Governor Michele Bullock’s post-decision statement will be the key signal; the RBA has explicitly stated it will hike further “if required” but the soft CPI removes the immediate case for action
A hold removes a near-term AUD-supportive factor — without a hike in August, one reason for investors to buy AUD weakens; for Australians sending money home, the exchange rate outlook is broadly neutral near-term
Eight days out from one of the most anticipated RBA decisions of 2026, the picture has clarified considerably. After three consecutive hikes in February, March and May that took the cash rate from 3.60% to 4.35%, the June quarter CPI data released on 30 July delivered the softer reading the RBA needed to justify a pause.
All four major Australian banks now expect a hold on 11 August.
What changed: the CPI
The decisive input was June quarter CPI, released 30 July:
- Headline CPI: 3.8% year-on-year in June — down from 4.0% in May; markets had expected 4.0%
- Trimmed mean (RBA’s preferred measure): 3.6% year-on-year — unchanged from May; the RBA had forecast 3.7%
The trimmed mean undershoot was the critical number. The RBA targets 2-3% — at 3.6%, inflation remains above target, but the trajectory is downward and the undershoot reduced the urgency to act in August.
Before the CPI release, Westpac was the only major bank forecasting an August hike. After the release, Westpac updated its forecast and joined CBA, NAB and ANZ in calling a hold. For the first time in months, all four major banks are aligned.
What each scenario means
Hold at 4.35% — base case
The RBA leaves rates unchanged. Governor Bullock’s statement language will be watched closely for whether the Board softens or maintains its explicit hike warning from June (“will do what is necessary, including increasing the cash rate target further if required”).
A hold with retained hawkish language maintains optionality — the RBA could still hike in November or December if inflation re-accelerates. A hold with softer language would signal the cycle is closer to its end.
AUD impact: Mild softening possible as hike expectations unwind, offset by Australia’s strong commodity export earnings. No dramatic move expected.
Surprise hike to 4.60% — low probability
Markets currently price approximately 20-30% probability of an August hike. The case would require the RBA to look through the soft June CPI and focus on the risk of inflation staying persistently above target — particularly given oil price volatility from the Middle East conflict and the possibility that the June CPI softness proves temporary.
AUD impact: A surprise hike would be AUD-positive — higher rates attract foreign capital. Australians sending money home would receive more foreign currency per dollar.
What the major banks say
CBA, NAB, ANZ: Hold at 4.35% in August. No further hikes expected in 2026. First cut not until mid-to-late 2027.
Westpac: Now forecasts a hold in August (updated post-CPI). Previously had called a hike. Maintains the view that a follow-up hike remains possible later in 2026 if inflation re-accelerates.
Independent economist Saul Eslake (pre-CPI): “At the moment, I think they’ll probably raise rates again at the August meeting, but that depends on the June quarter inflation figures.” — The June quarter figures came in soft, reducing the case he anticipated.
Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey (pre-CPI): 55% of economists expected at least one more hike in 2026; 62% of those nominated August as the most likely timing. Post-CPI, this distribution has shifted materially toward a hold.
The RBA’s current position
The RBA has hiked three times in 2026:
- February: +25bp to 3.85%
- March: +25bp to 4.10%
- May: +25bp to 4.35%
- June: Hold at 4.35%
- August: Hold expected at 4.35%
Governor Bullock’s June statement confirmed the Board “will do what it considers necessary to achieve that outcome, including increasing the cash rate target further if required” — the hike bias remains. But the June CPI has reduced the probability of acting on that bias in August specifically.
What to watch in the decision statement
The RBA statement is published at 2:30pm AEST on Tuesday 11 August. Key language to watch:
Most hawkish signal: Maintains “including increasing the cash rate target further if required” with no qualification — cycle not finished
Neutral signal: Softens the hike warning to “monitoring conditions” language — beginning to signal the end of the tightening cycle
Most dovish signal (unlikely): Removes hike bias entirely — would be a significant market surprise
What it means for the AUD and your transfers
The RBA’s rate decisions affect the AUD through interest rate differentials — higher rates attract foreign capital into AUD assets. With a hold now priced in, the August decision itself is unlikely to move the AUD significantly.
Near-term AUD outlook: Broadly neutral. The commodity export boom (gold at $4,792/oz, iron ore at $91/mt) continues to support the AUD independent of rate movements. A hold in August removes one AUD support but does not change the fundamental commodity-driven picture.
For Australians sending money home:
- AUD to INR, PHP, VND, NPR — all fee-free from Australia; current exchange rates are broadly supportive
- Use OrbitRemit’s rate alert to be notified when your target AUD rate is hit
Key dates this week
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Tuesday 11 August, 2:30pm AEST | RBA rate decision — hold expected |
| 11 August | Australia Census night |
| 20 August | RBNZ rate decision — further hike expected |
| 24 August | NZ SMC changes effective — 21 days away |
| 2 September | RBNZ rate decision |
Sending money from Australia
- AUD to INR: fee-free
- AUD to PHP mobile wallets (GCash): fee-free
- AUD to GBP: fee-free
- AUD to VND, NPR, IDR: fee-free
- Flat AUD $4 on most other corridors
- Fee-free above AUD $10,000
- Rate locked at confirmation
- Set a rate alert to act when AUD hits your target
FAQ’s (frequently asked questions)
When is the RBA August 2026 decision?
Tuesday 11 August 2026 at 2:30pm AEST.
Will the RBA raise interest rates in August 2026?
All four major banks (CBA, NAB, ANZ, Westpac) now forecast a hold at 4.35%. Markets price approximately 20-30% probability of a hike. The June CPI coming in below forecast (3.8% headline, 3.6% trimmed mean) significantly reduced the case for August action.
What is the RBA cash rate in August 2026?
4.35%, following hikes in February, March and May 2026 totalling 75 basis points. No change is widely expected on 11 August.
How does the RBA decision affect the AUD exchange rate?
Higher rates attract foreign capital into AUD assets, strengthening the currency. A hold in August removes one near-term AUD support. The AUD remains broadly supported by Australia’s commodity export earnings regardless of the rate decision.
This preview is based on analyst forecasts and market pricing as of 3 August 2026. The RBA decision is announced 11 August at 2:30pm AEST. Exchange rates fluctuate — check current rates at orbitremit.com. Last updated 3 August 2026.
Sources: Integrated Finance Group — RBA August 2026 Rate Decision: Hike or Hold? (3 weeks ago) | Aussie.com.au — Expert predictions for the RBA’s August 2026 interest rate decision (4 days ago) | Canstar — Interest Rate Forecast 2026 (July 2026) | Yahoo Finance — RBA interest rate hike warning (2 weeks ago)
