Summary
Markets are pricing an approximately 80% probability of a 25bp RBA rate hike on 29 September 2026 — up from just 17% before the July CPI release on 26 August; the probability surged through 50% on GDP day (Wednesday 3 September), hit 66% by Thursday’s close and reached approximately 80% by Friday 6 September; if delivered, the hike would lift Australia’s cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%. The RBA rate hike September 2026 is now a central focus for investors.
The big four banks are now split — NAB expects a September hike; ANZ and CBA expect November; Westpac is the only major bank still forecasting no hike in 2026; November is fully priced regardless of whether September or November delivers the move, meaning markets see at least one more 25bp hike as near-certain before year end
Despite rising hike odds, the ASX 200 barely flinched — the index fell just 0.16% on Friday, closing at 9,005.9; the relative calm in equities signals that investors are treating a move to 4.60% as manageable for corporate earnings — a “price not a promise,” as one analyst put it
In the space of 11 days, the probability of a September RBA rate hike went from 17% to 80%. Three data releases drove the repricing: the July CPI (3.5% headline, 3.6% trimmed mean on 26 August), the Q2 GDP beat (0.4% QoQ on 3 September) and the July trade surplus beat (3 September). Together they painted a picture of an economy running hotter than the RBA had projected — and markets responded by pulling forward expectations of the next move.
How we got here — a timeline
| Date | Event | September hike probability |
|---|---|---|
| Before 26 August | Pre-CPI baseline | ~17% |
| 26 August | July CPI: 3.5% headline, 3.6% trimmed mean | ~50% |
| 28 August | AUD rallies; hike fully priced for November | ~50% September, 100% November |
| 3 September (Wed) | Q2 GDP: +0.4% QoQ, beats +0.3% forecast | ~70% September |
| 3 September (Thu) | Trade surplus: AUD $1.923bn, beats forecast | ~66% September (ASX futures) |
| 5 September (Fri) | Markets consolidate | ~80% September |
What the ASX futures are saying
The October 2026 interbank cash rate futures contract settled at 95.485 on 4 September — implying an average cash rate of 4.515% for October. Against the current 4.35% starting point, that is 16.5 basis points of the 25 on offer — equivalent to a 66% probability of a September hike at Thursday’s close.
By Friday 6 September, the probability had moved to approximately 80% based on updated futures pricing.
The November contract settled at 95.400, implying an average cash rate of 4.60% — meaning a full 25bp hike is priced by end-November regardless of timing. The market has essentially decided a hike is coming — the question is September or November.
A second increase in early 2027 is only about 25% priced — markets are not yet calling for back-to-back hikes.
What the big four banks say
| Bank | Call | Target rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAB | September hike | 4.60% | First to call September; flagged risk of November too |
| ANZ | November hike | 4.60% | July CPI wasn’t quite hot enough for September alone |
| CBA | November hike | 4.60% | Switched to November on 27 August; calls September a live secondary risk |
| Westpac | No hike in 2026 | 4.35% | Lone dissenter; expects subdued growth to stay the RBA’s hand |
Canstar data insights director Sally Tindall: “The economic narrative has taken a U-turn in the space of just a couple of days” — commenting on the shift in bank forecasts following the July CPI release.
Alex Joiner, chief economist at IFM Investors: “The economy risks not slowing quickly enough for the RBA to achieve its inflation objectives and as such it should raise rates in either September or November.”
Why September is now more likely than not
Three pieces of data have shifted the balance:
1. July CPI (26 August): Headline inflation fell to 3.5% — better than June’s 3.8% — but trimmed mean held at 3.6% for the second consecutive month. The RBA’s own forecasts projected trimmed mean easing by now. It hasn’t.
2. Q2 GDP (3 September): The economy grew 0.4% in Q2, beating the 0.3% consensus. Annual growth came in at 2.1%, well above the 1.8% forecast. A stronger-than-expected economy with sticky underlying inflation is exactly the environment where the RBA would consider acting.
3. July trade surplus (3 September): AUD $1.923 billion — beat all major bank forecasts. External accounts remain supportive; no external drag on the growth outlook.
The countercase (Westpac’s view): The household saving ratio at 6.5% suggests consumers are cautious; real wages remain slightly negative; and the first-half annualised growth rate of just 1.2% is “subdued,” as the RBA itself described it. Westpac argues the economy is slowing sufficiently on its own.
What could change between now and 29 September
Two more data releases could significantly shift the probability in either direction:
Labour market data (next scheduled: mid-September): A strong employment print — particularly if the unemployment rate falls or wages data surprises — would reinforce the hike case. A weak result could push September back to 50/50.
RBA speeches this week: RBA Assistant Governor Hunter speaks Tuesday 8 September at 1:20pm AEST; Deputy Governor Hauser speaks Tuesday at 7:30pm AEST. Any signal that the board is leaning toward September would push futures pricing even higher.
No further major CPI or GDP data is available before the 29 September decision — the August CPI (monthly indicator) is released 30 September, the day after the meeting.
What an 80% priced hike means for the AUD
When a rate hike is 80% priced, most of the AUD appreciation has already happened. The AUD has been well-supported above 0.70 USD since the post-CPI repricing and currently sits near 0.7168.
If the RBA hikes on 29 September: The AUD may get a small “confirm” bump — but the 66-80% already priced limits the upside. Markets will immediately turn to what happens in November and 2027.
If the RBA holds on 29 September: The AUD would likely fall sharply — unwinding the 60%+ of hike probability that is currently priced in.
The most important date between now and 29 September: The next Australia CPI (30 September) is released the day after the meeting — too late to influence the decision but will shape expectations for November and beyond.
What it means for your transfers
A higher Australian cash rate relative to global peers attracts foreign capital into AUD assets, providing support for the currency. With the AUD holding above 0.71 and a September hike now near-certain in market pricing, conditions remain supportive for Australians sending money home.
AUD to INR, PHP, VND and NPR transfers are fee-free with OrbitRemit — rate locked at confirmation.
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
When is the next RBA meeting?
Tuesday 29 September 2026.
What is the current RBA cash rate?
4.35% — unchanged since the last RBA meeting in August 2026.
What would a September hike mean for mortgage holders?
A 25bp hike to 4.60% would add approximately AUD $76 per month to repayments on a $600,000 variable-rate mortgage.
Which banks are forecasting a September RBA hike?
NAB is the only major bank currently forecasting a September hike. ANZ and CBA expect November. Westpac forecasts no further hikes in 2026.
What is the probability of a November RBA hike?
The November 2026 futures contract implies a full 25bp hike by end-November — meaning markets see a hike as near-certain to arrive by November regardless of the September outcome.
This article is based on market pricing and bank forecasts as of 7 September 2026. Exchange rates and probabilities fluctuate — check current rates at orbitremit.com. Last updated 7 September 2026.
Sources: ts2.tech — RBA Rate-Hike Odds Near 80%: The ASX 200 Barely Blinked (1 day ago) | theindustryspread.com — GBP/AUD to 1.84 by the November RBA Decision (1 day ago) | Canstar — Interest Rate Forecast 2026 (5 days ago) | aussie.com.au — What experts predict for the RBA’s September 2026 interest rate decision (1 week ago) | centralbank.watch — RBA Rate Probability (1 week ago) | tradingpedia.com — AUD Extends Rally as Markets Boost RBA Hike Bets (August 28, 2026)
