Summary
NAB, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Morgan Stanley are all now forecasting a 25bp RBA rate hike at the 29 September 2026 meeting — taking the cash rate from 4.35% to 4.60%; ANZ and CBA continue to forecast November; Westpac remains the lone major bank forecasting no further hikes in 2026; the shift in bank forecasts reflects stubborn core inflation and a stronger-than-expected global growth backdrop. The focus on the RBA September 2026 meeting is crucial for investors.
Markets currently price a 66-68% probability of a September hike — down from approximately 80% on Friday 5 September but still the majority view; the AUD/USD has consolidated between 0.7196 and 0.7226, holding near four-month highs as the hike narrative provides support
A new factor has entered the picture — the US August jobs report — US employers added 162,000 roles in August against a roughly 55,000 consensus, the strongest print in five months; this has put the Federal Reserve’s September meeting back in play, creating a scenario where both the RBA and the Fed could hike in the same month; when two major central banks move in tandem, their rate gap barely changes and currency impact is limited
The case for an RBA hike on 29 September has strengthened materially since the July CPI data landed on 26 August. Four major institutions — NAB, Deutsche Bank, UBS and Morgan Stanley — are now formally forecasting a September move. Markets are at 66-68%. The AUD is holding above 0.72. And from the other side of the Pacific, a strong US jobs report has added a new complication to the picture.
Where the banks stand
| Bank | Call | Cash rate target | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAB | September hike | 4.60% | First major bank to call September; sees risk of November hike too |
| Deutsche Bank | September hike | 4.60% | Joined NAB in calling September |
| UBS | September hike | 4.60% | Cited “too high” inflation; notes positive global growth backdrop |
| Morgan Stanley | September hike | 4.60% | Added to September call this week |
| ANZ | November hike | 4.60% | July CPI not hot enough for September alone |
| CBA | November hike | 4.60% | September a live secondary risk |
| Westpac | No hike in 2026 | 4.35% | Lone dissenter; expects subdued growth to stay the RBA’s hand |
What drove the September forecasts
Three data releases have shifted the balance toward September:
1. July CPI (26 August): Headline inflation fell to 3.5% (from 3.8%) but trimmed mean held at 3.6% for the second consecutive month. The RBA’s own forecasts projected trimmed mean easing by now. It has not.
2. Q2 GDP (3 September): The economy grew 0.4% in Q2, beating the 0.3% consensus. Annual growth of 2.1% was well above the 1.8% forecast.
3. July trade surplus (3 September): AUD $1.923 billion — well above the AUD $1.40-1.50 billion consensus.
Together, these three releases present a picture of an economy growing above trend with inflation above target and not easing as quickly as projected.
The US jobs factor
The August US non-farm payrolls report, released Friday 5 September, showed 162,000 jobs added — far above the roughly 55,000 consensus and the strongest print in five months. Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech on 28 August had already put the Fed’s September meeting back in focus.
What this means for the AUD: Two hawkish-leaning central banks moving in the same direction tend to cancel each other out on currency. If both the RBA and the Fed hike in September, the rate differential barely moves — limiting AUD upside from the RBA hike alone.
AUD/USD has consolidated between 0.7196 and 0.7226 since 5 September — holding near four-month highs but not breaking out further as markets weigh the two-central-bank scenario.
What could still change before 29 September
Labour market data: Australian employment data due mid-September will be closely watched. A strong employment print reinforces the hike case; a weak result could push September odds back toward 50/50.
Global developments: Escalating Middle East tensions have pushed energy prices higher globally — a factor the ECB is also navigating. For the RBA, higher energy prices could keep inflation elevated and strengthen the case for action.
The decisive input is 29 September itself — the next Australia CPI (30 September) is released the day after the meeting and cannot influence the decision.
Market pricing as of 9 September 2026
| Metric | Level |
|---|---|
| Current RBA cash rate | 4.35% |
| September hike probability | 66-68% |
| Implied rate if September hike | 4.60% |
| AUD/USD | ~0.7218 |
| November hike fully priced | Yes — regardless of September outcome |
| Next RBA meeting | 29 September 2026, 2:30pm AEST |
Global context — rates round up
| Central bank | Current rate | Next meeting | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBA | 4.35% | 29 September | 66-68% hike probability |
| Federal Reserve | 3.50-3.75% | 16 September | September hike back in play |
| ECB | 2.25% | 10 September | Near-certain +25bp to 2.50% |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | 28 October | Likely pause |
| Bank of England | 3.75% | 17 September | Expected hold |
What it means for your transfers
The AUD has held above 0.72 as markets price an elevated probability of a September hike. For Australians sending money home to India, the Philippines, Vietnam, Nepal and beyond, current AUD strength means more value per dollar sent.
AUD to INR, PHP, VND and NPR transfers are fee-free with OrbitRemit.
This article is based on market pricing and bank forecasts as of 9 September 2026. Exchange rates and probabilities fluctuate. Last updated 9 September 2026.
Sources: thebull.com.au — Will RBA raise rates in September? These banks think so (2 days ago) | vantagemarkets.com — AUDUSD Holds 0.7218 as RBA and Fed Both Weigh Hikes (17 hours ago) | centralbank.watch — RBA Rate Probability | rateprobability.com/rba — RBA hike probabilities (9 September 2026) | canstar.com.au — Interest Rate Forecast 2026 (1 week ago) | abc.net.au — More banks forecast RBA September interest rate hike (5 days ago)
