Summary
The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee raised Bank Rate from 3.75% to 4% on Thursday 5 November 2026, its first hike since August 2023. This significant decision reflects the current economic conditions, including the ongoing issues stemming from global events. The Bank of England November 2026’s decision shows the committee’s responsive measures to inflation and market stability. Eight members voted for a 25 basis point rise and one, Catherine Mann, voted for a 50 basis point rise to 4.25%; the Bank said the conflict in the Middle East is now in its ninth month and that global energy prices have risen materially further
The Bank now expects UK inflation to reach about 5% by mid-2027, up from 3.5% in September – UK CPI rose to 3.5% in the year to September, from 3.1% in August and 2.6% in June; the Bank projects inflation will then fall as the effect of higher energy prices on 12-month rates fades and restrictive policy bears down on it
Sterling barely moved, and the guidance mattered more than the hike – the increase had been almost fully priced in, GBP/USD traded around 1.347 and was close to flat on the day, and gilt yields edged higher; Governor Andrew Bailey said that without news softening inflation risks he can see the argument for a further increase
The decision
| Decision date | Thursday 5 November 2026, 12:00 GMT |
| Bank Rate | Raised 25bp from 3.75% to 4% |
| Vote | 8-1. Eight members voted for 4%. Catherine Mann voted for 4.25% |
| First hike since | August 2023 |
| UK CPI inflation | 3.5% in the year to September (August: 3.1%; June: 2.6%) |
| Bank’s inflation projection | About 4.5% in Q1 2027 and about 5% in Q2 2027, then projected to fall as the effect of energy prices fades |
| Next decision | The minutes of the meeting ending 16 December will be published on 17 December 2026 |
What the Bank said
The Monetary Policy Summary said the conflict in the Middle East is now in its ninth month and that global energy prices have continued to rise. The Committee said it will adjust Bank Rate as necessary to ensure CPI inflation returns to the 2% target in the medium term.
Governor Andrew Bailey said the Bank’s central projection depends on real progress towards settling the conflict in the Middle East. Without news that softens the risks to inflation, he said, he can see the argument for a further increase in rates, followed by a more conditional approach that depends on the evidence on energy prices and inflation.
Reuters reported that the Bank warned at least one more increase was likely if the conflict continues.
What individual members said
The minutes show a range of views among members.
- Megan Greene said additional hikes will likely be required going forward, though further out that depends on pay, pricing behaviour and slack.
- Clare Lombardelli said that, without evidence of weaker inflation pressures, there is likely to be a case for a further increase in the near term.
- Huw Pill said a single 25 basis point rise is unlikely to be sufficient and that more tightening is likely to be needed, including in the near term.
- Alan Taylor said this is not the start of a hiking cycle and described it as a risk-management insurance rise for now. He said the next move could be up, down or sideways.
- Catherine Mann voted for a 50 basis point rise and said projected inflation reaches 4.9% by mid-2027.
How markets reacted
| Market | Reaction | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Sterling | GBP/USD traded around 1.347, little changed on the day. EUR/GBP was around 0.835 | Babypips, Economies.com |
| Gilts | Yields edged higher after the decision | CNBC, Reuters |
| Before the decision | Markets priced more than a 99% chance of a hike and about a one-in-four chance of a further rise in December | LSEG via CNBC |
The hike had been widely expected, so the vote split and guidance were what traders were watching. Babypips noted that the Bank Rate now matches the top of the US Federal Reserve’s 3.75% to 4.00% range, which narrows the interest rate gap between the two.
How analysts read it
These are third-party views, not OrbitRemit’s.
- Pricing versus the Bank’s forecasts: eToro’s Lale Akoner said markets had priced rates reaching around 4.75% to 5%, while the Bank’s own forecasts suggest fewer increases may be needed.
- Borrowers: Aviva Investors’ Ed Hutchings said three further hikes were priced in by markets and that the move would unsettle borrowers as budgets become more stretched.
- The Bank’s own survey: The Bank’s Market Participants Survey showed a median expected path of 4% in November and 4.25% in February.
Central banks at a glance
| Central bank | Rate | Latest decision |
|---|---|---|
| Bank of England | 4% | Raised 25bp, 8-1 vote, 5 November 2026 |
| RBA | 4.85% | Raised 25bp, 6-3 vote, 3 November 2026 |
| Federal Reserve | 3.75-4.00% | Held, 10-2 vote, 28 October 2026 |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | Held, 4-3 vote, 28 October 2026 |
| ECB | 2.50% (deposit rate) | Unchanged at last report |
What it means for sending money to the UK
The Bank of England’s decision is one of many factors that can influence the pound. As this week showed, sterling can stay flat on the day of a rate rise that markets expected. When the pound is stronger against the Australian or New Zealand dollar, each dollar you send converts into fewer pounds, all else equal. When it is weaker, each dollar converts into more.
- No one can reliably predict exchange rates. OrbitRemit does not give advice on exchange rate timing.
- The rate shown when you confirm a transfer is the rate you get. The exchange rate and the exact amount your recipient receives are shown before you confirm.
- Compare the total received, not just the fee. Enter the same amount with two or three providers and compare how much would arrive.
OrbitRemit charges no flat transfer fee for AUD to GBP or NZD to GBP. OrbitRemit makes its margin on the exchange rate, which is shown before you confirm.
FAQs (frequently asked questions)
What did the Bank of England decide on 5 November 2026?
It raised Bank Rate by 25 basis points from 3.75% to 4%, in an 8-1 vote. One member voted for a 50 basis point rise.
Why did the Bank of England raise rates?
The Bank cited inflation pressure from higher energy prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. UK CPI inflation reached 3.5% in September, and the Bank now expects it to near 5% by mid-2027.
Will the Bank of England raise rates again?
The Bank did not commit. Governor Bailey said that without news softening inflation risks he can see the argument for a further increase, with a more conditional approach after that. Members’ views also differ: some said more tightening is likely, while one described this as an insurance rise rather than the start of a hiking cycle. Analysts’ views differ on how many more increases are needed.
How did the pound react?
Sterling barely moved. GBP/USD traded around 1.347, close to flat on the day, because the hike had largely been expected.
Does this change what I should do with a transfer?
OrbitRemit cannot advise on timing. What you can do is compare the total your recipient would receive from different providers at the time you send.
Important information
This article is general information only. It is not financial, investment or tax advice, and it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a forecast of any exchange rate or interest rate. Forecasts, market pricing and commentary quoted in this article come from third parties, are attributed to them, and are not OrbitRemit’s views or predictions. Exchange rates and interest rates change constantly, and past movements do not indicate future ones. OrbitRemit does not provide advice on exchange rate timing, and its exchange rate includes a margin, with the rate and destination amount shown before you confirm each transfer.
Related guides
- RBA hikes to 4.85%, an 18-year high, in split 6-3 vote
- Does an RBA rate hike make the Australian dollar stronger?
- How international money transfers work
- Low-fee transfers from New Zealand to the UK
Last updated 9 November 2026.
Sources: Bank of England, Monetary Policy Summary and Minutes, November 2026 | CNBC, Bank of England hikes interest rate for the first time since the Iran war, warns inflation will near 5% (5 November 2026) | Reuters, Bank of England delivers first rate hike in three years, gilt yields rise (5 November 2026) | Babypips, BoE Finally Hiked Rates. Why GBP Just Shrugged (6 November 2026) | Economies.com, Sterling holds steady after Bank of England raises interest rates to 4% (5 November 2026) | InvestingLive, Bank of England preview (5 November 2026) | MoneyWeek, Bank of England raises interest rates, live (5 November 2026)
