Summary
US nonfarm payrolls rose by 165,000 in October 2026, more than double the roughly 65,000 economists expected. This significant increase is reflected in the US jobs report October 2026. – the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the figure on Friday 6 November; the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2% in September and was below the 4.2% forecast, and the labour force participation rate rose to 61.9%
Earlier months were revised up, but the detail was mixed – August and September were revised up by a combined 84,000 jobs, with September now at 60,000; wages rose 0.4% on the month and 3.1% on the year, which is below the latest 3.7% inflation rate, involuntary part-time work rose by 339,000, and the broad U-6 underemployment rate rose to 7.9% from 7.6%
Fed hike odds rose, and US yields increased – after the report, CME FedWatch put the chance of a December hike at about 77%, from about 75% before it, with some reports citing up to 85%; the Fed held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on 28 October and meets again on 8-9 December
The numbers
| Indicator | October 2026 | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm payrolls | +165,000 | About +59,000 to +65,000 | +60,000 (September, revised) |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4.2% | 4.2% |
| Participation rate | 61.9% | 61.8% | |
| Average hourly earnings | +0.4% on the month; +3.1% on the year | ||
| U-6 underemployment | 7.9% | 7.6% | |
| Revisions | August and September up by 84,000 combined |
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, as reported by Reuters and Babypips.
What changed for the Federal Reserve
The Fed raised its target range in September, to 3.75% to 4.00%, and held it on 28 October in a 10-2 vote, with two members preferring a hike. Its next meeting is 8-9 December.
- Before the jobs report, markets priced about a 75% chance of a December hike.
- After it, CME FedWatch showed about 77%, and some reports cited 80% to 85%.
- Analysts said the report gives the Fed more scope to focus on inflation. Franklin Templeton’s Jeff Schulze said lower unemployment leaves the committee free to place most of its focus on restoring price stability.
- Janus Henderson’s Addison Maier said what will matter most is inflation and the outlook for the AI build-out.
These are third-party views, not OrbitRemit’s. The next US inflation reading, October CPI, is due on Tuesday 10 November.
A mixed picture
The headline was strong, but several details were less so:
- Wages grew more slowly than prices. Annual wage growth of 3.1% is below inflation of 3.7%.
- More people were working part-time involuntarily. Involuntary part-time work rose by 339,000.
- Underemployment rose. The U-6 rate climbed to 7.9% from 7.6%.
- The recent trend was weaker. October’s gain compares with a prior-year average of about 48,000 jobs a month.
How markets reacted
- Treasury yields rose after the report (Reuters).
- The US dollar index extended its gains (Trading Economics).
- December hike pricing increased, as above.
What to watch next
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| Tuesday 10 November, 8:30am ET (12:30am Wednesday AEDT) | US October CPI |
| Friday 13 November | US producer prices (PPI) |
| Friday 4 December, 8:30am ET | US November jobs report |
| 8-9 December | Federal Reserve meeting |
What it means for sending money from Australia or New Zealand
The US dollar is on one side of many currency pairs, so US data can affect the Australian and New Zealand dollars even when nothing has changed locally. When the US dollar strengthens against the Australian dollar, each Australian dollar converts into fewer US dollars, all else equal. When it weakens, each converts into more.
The effect on a transfer to another country depends on both currencies involved, and many things move exchange rates at once, including the RBA, the RBNZ, oil prices and global risk sentiment.
- No one can reliably predict exchange rates. OrbitRemit does not give advice on exchange rate timing.
- The rate shown when you confirm a transfer is the rate you get. The exchange rate and the exact destination amount are shown before you confirm.
- Compare the total received, not just the fee.
OrbitRemit makes its margin on the exchange rate, which is shown before you confirm.
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FAQs (frequently asked questions)
What did the US jobs report show for October 2026?
Employers added 165,000 jobs, well above forecasts of roughly 59,000 to 65,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%.
Will the Fed raise rates in December?
The Fed has not decided. After the report, markets priced roughly a 77% to 85% chance of a December increase, depending on the source. The Fed meets on 8-9 December.
Why does the jobs report matter for the dollar?
It affects expectations for Federal Reserve interest rates, which are one of the factors that influence the US dollar. A stronger labour market can raise the odds of higher rates.
Was the report all good news?
Not entirely. Wage growth of 3.1% was below inflation of 3.7%, involuntary part-time work rose, and the U-6 underemployment rate climbed.
Does this change what I should do with a transfer?
OrbitRemit cannot advise on timing. What you can do is compare the total your recipient would receive from different providers at the time you send.
Important information
This article is general information only. It is not financial, investment or tax advice, and it does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not a forecast of any exchange rate, interest rate or economic data. Forecasts, market pricing and commentary quoted in this article come from third parties, are attributed to them, and are not OrbitRemit’s views or predictions. Market figures change constantly, and past movements do not indicate future ones. OrbitRemit does not provide advice on exchange rate timing, and its exchange rate includes a margin, with the rate and destination amount shown before you confirm each transfer.
Related guides
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Last updated 9 November 2026.
Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation, October 2026 (6 November 2026) | Reuters, Strong October jobs report sends yields higher (6 November 2026) | Babypips, US Jobs Report October 2026: Payrolls Jump 165,000 (6 November 2026) | InvestmentNews, October jobs report beats forecasts, lifting December Fed hike odds (6 November 2026) | MPA, October jobs shock seals case for December Fed rate hike (6 November 2026) | Trading Economics, DXY extends gains after strong jobs report | Federal Reserve, FOMC statement (28 October 2026)
