Summary
The Federal Reserve released the FOMC minutes October 2026 of its September 15-16 meeting on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 2:00pm ET — the minutes confirmed that the September +25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% was unanimous (12-0) and showed that Fed officials projected one more hike in 2026, though views on the 2027 path were spread widely across the dot plot — the minutes were released into a significantly changed data environment: September payrolls came in at just +29,000 against an expected ~90,000, sharply below consensus, causing markets to reprice the October 28 meeting from a ~70% hike probability to just 16-23%; the minutes themselves are therefore “stale” relative to the incoming data
December 2026 remains the most likely meeting for the next Fed hike, with market pricing at approximately 81% probability — the September dot plot showed that nine of eighteen FOMC participants pencilled in at least one additional hike for 2026; the soft September payrolls result has pushed that action from October to December in market pricing; September CPI, releasing on Wednesday 14 October, is now the pivotal data point before the October 28 meeting
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh held the first post-meeting press conference of his tenure following the September hike — Warsh, who took office in May 2026, stated at the September meeting that “inflation is too high and has been for too long”; the minutes will show how firmly the broader committee shares that view and whether any members argued for a pause after September
The September FOMC decision
Decision: +25bp unanimous (12-0) New rate: 3.75% to 4.00% Date: 16 September 2026 First hike since: July 2023 Fed Chair: Kevin Warsh (took office May 2026)
The September hike was the first increase in the federal funds rate since July 2023 — ending a long pause as persistent inflation and resilient US growth gave the Fed cover to move. The vote was unanimous at 12-0, with no dissenters.
What the minutes showed
The dot plot: Nine of eighteen FOMC participants pencilled in at least one additional hike for 2026 at the September meeting. The median dot pointed to one more move. Views on 2027 were spread widely — indicating significant internal disagreement about how long rates need to stay elevated.
Data dependency confirmed: The minutes showed that officials remain data-dependent and have not pre-committed to a November or December hike. The pace of further tightening will depend on incoming inflation, employment and growth data.
One more hike guidance: The September statement and dot plot explicitly signalled that the FOMC expected one more 25bp hike in 2026. The question for markets is whether that move comes at the October 28 meeting or the December 9 meeting.
The soft payrolls problem — why the minutes are “stale”
The September FOMC minutes were released into a data environment that had shifted significantly since the meeting itself.
September US payrolls (released Friday 3 October 2026):
| Indicator | Result | Consensus |
|---|---|---|
| Non-farm payrolls | +29,000 | ~90,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.2% | Little changed |
The payrolls print was dramatically weaker than expected — +29,000 against a consensus of approximately 90,000. The result caused markets to rapidly reprice the October 28 meeting, with October hike odds falling from approximately 64-70% in the days before payrolls to just 16-23% after the release.
The FOMC minutes — which cover the September 15-16 meeting — predate this data by more than two weeks. As thriveinmarkets.com noted, Wednesday’s minutes “recap a stale hike”: the guidance inside the document reflects the data available in mid-September, not the soft October picture.
The minutes carry asymmetric risk: A hawkish account of the September debate, showing broad FOMC sympathy for a quick second hike, could push October odds back up toward 30-40%. An in-line, data-dependent account would leave the 16-23% October pricing intact heading into the 14 October CPI release.
What comes next
September CPI — Wednesday 14 October (most important near-term release)
The September CPI print is the single most important data point before the October 28 FOMC meeting. After weak September payrolls, a hot September CPI could revive October hike expectations; a soft CPI would likely push the next hike firmly into December.
October 28 FOMC meeting
Current market pricing (as of 5 October 2026):
- Hold: approximately 80%
- Hike: approximately 16-23%
The soft payrolls result has made an October hike unlikely as the base case. The September CPI on 14 October is the last major inflation data point before the decision.
December 9 FOMC meeting
Current market pricing: approximately 81% probability of at least one hike by December.
December remains the most likely timing for the Fed’s next move. If the data between now and December confirms that inflation is still too high (and the economy is holding up), the Fed is expected to deliver the second 2026 hike at its final meeting of the year.
Fed speakers this week
Williams and Bowman both spoke earlier this week, providing additional colour on the FOMC’s thinking. Their tone will be watched carefully for any signal about October.
The 2026 Fed rate timeline
| Meeting | Decision | Rate | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| January 27-28 | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | — |
| March 2026 | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | — |
| April 29 | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | — |
| June 17 | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | Warsh’s first meeting as Chair; 12-0 |
| July 28-29 | Hold | 3.50-3.75% | 9-3 vote; Logan dissented for hike |
| September 15-16 | +25bp | 3.75-4.00% | Unanimous 12-0; Warsh’s first hike |
| October 27-28 | Next decision | TBD | 16-23% hike probability |
| December 9 | — | TBD | 81% at least one hike by here |
Global rates context
| Central bank | Rate | Last decision |
|---|---|---|
| RBA | 4.60% | +25bp — 29 September 2026 |
| Federal Reserve | 3.75-4.00% | +25bp — 16 September 2026 |
| Bank of England | 3.75% | Hold 6-3 — 17 September 2026 |
| ECB | 2.50% | +25bp — 10 September 2026 |
| RBNZ | 2.75% | +25bp — 2 September 2026 |
The US Federal Reserve at 3.75-4.00% sits 60-85bp below Australia’s 4.60% cash rate, which now leads the major developed-market central banks.
FAQs(frequently asked questions)
What did the September FOMC minutes show?
The minutes confirmed the September +25bp hike was unanimous (12-0) and that nine of eighteen participants expected at least one more hike in 2026. Views on 2027 were spread widely.
When is the next Fed meeting?
October 27-28, 2026. Market pricing puts a hike at approximately 16-23% probability, down from 64-70% before the weak September payrolls data.
When is the next Fed rate hike most likely?
December 9, 2026, with approximately 81% market probability of at least one hike by that meeting.
What is the current US federal funds rate?
3.75% to 4.00% — following the September 16, 2026 hike, the first increase since July 2023.
Who is the Fed Chair?
Kevin Warsh, who took office in May 2026. The September hike was his first as Chair.
What is the most important data before the October Fed meeting?
September CPI, releasing Wednesday 14 October 2026. A hot print could revive October hike odds; a soft print would likely lock in December as the next move.
This article is based on confirmed Federal Reserve data and market pricing as of 8 October 2026. Exchange rates and probabilities fluctuate. Last updated 8 October 2026.
Sources: admiralmarkets.com — FOMC Minutes October 2026: Release Time and What to Watch | fedratecalc.com — FOMC Minutes Release Schedule 2026 | financecalendar.com — FOMC Minutes October 2026 | thriveinmarkets.com — Week Ahead 2026-10-05 | investinglive.com — Fed minutes preview: one more hike guidance meets softer data as October odds fade | kucoin.com — September 2026 FOMC Decision: Will the Fed Hike Rates or Hold?
